I awakened this morning to find that the Islamic state has announced that it is closing the Straits of Hormuz once again. Even though Israel was not a party to the Islamabad MoU, Tehran cites continuing hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in the south of Lebanon as the reason Iran is not honoring its side of the agreement.
At the direction of Tehran, the Trump administration is pressuring Israel to quit its operations in Lebanon. Israel is a sovereign nation-state. It has the right to defend itself against foreign aggression. Ultimately, Iran is behind the aggression. Why should Israel honor an MoU that does not guarantee its security? Why is Iran dictating US foreign policy? Why has Trump made a pawn of Israel? (So much for the theory that Israel runs US foreign policy.)
Thursday afternoon on this platform, I published Trump’s Very Bad Deal With Iran and the Troubling Rise of Islamophilia Among Younger Conservatives. At first blush, the parts of that essay may strike readers as two rather distinct essays. I wish that were the case. They appear together because they describe parts of a whole.
Understanding why the Trump administration would appease Iran to the detriment of Israel, developments on the home front need attending to. The Midterms are approaching. If anger over the cost of living causes Trump to lose the Republican majority, then his second-term agenda will be ground to a halt. Gas prices are part of it. But there’s more to it than that. Trump’s base is fracturing over the Middle East.
The neocons are imperfect allies, to be sure, but on Iran, their criticism of the Islamabad MoU is essentially correct. I don’t like finding myself in agreement with a man like Robert Kagan. Kagan argues that the war outcome and subsequent diplomacy reflect a US strategic defeat and erosion of American leverage. His view is that the agreement locks in unfavorable realities rather than reversing them.
My disagreement with Trump over Iran hails from a different standpoint, but neocons are not always wrong, and they can arrive at the right conclusion even if their objectives differ from mine. In this case, the neocons are right.
The vocal rejection of Trump over the Iran war by the “Blue Hat” America First crowd—my term for right-wing isolationists inclined to challenge and constrain Donald Trump’s foreign policy—cannot have gone unnoticed by the President. Tucker Carlson, Candice Owens, and their ilk and crowd were instrumental in helping Trump return to the White House. The MAGA hurricane had gathered strength amid lawfare and the disastrous Biden years. The hurricane is blowing itself out.
The Blue Hat’s highly public break with the movement’s mainstream over Iran rests on the claim that Trump has abandoned the America First principles that once defined his appeal. It must be particularly galling to Trump to hear the isolationists accuse him of aligning himself with the very neoconservatives he long denounced.
The far-right mind works from the theory of Jewish manipulation of American institutions. To obscure their antisemitism, Jews are accused of using the charge of antisemitism to silence those who expose the cabal. Readers have heard the complaint: “Jews always wrap criticisms of Israel in the charge of antisemitism. But we are criticizing Israeli behavior and Zionist racism!” But is this not itself an expression of antisemitism? It boils down to this: Jews run the world and accuse those who notice of Jew-hatred. The distillate reeks of antisemitism.
It appears this mentality has some purchase among administration officials. Vice President J.D. Vance made the distinction between criticism of Israel and antisemitism in that tortured way in a recent interview with The Blaze. But the double standard applied to Israel is a hallmark of antisemitism. Every country has the right to respond to foreign aggression. Israel is being assailed from every front. Yet they are told to behave differently from every other country. Treating Israel differently implies that Jews are the aggressors in the region. It is not opposition to a Jewish state in the Middle East that lobs missiles into Israel, but Jewish aggression in the region that demands a response. If Israel were to quit Lebanon, the conflict would end. How did that work out in Gaza?
At a White House news conference Thursday, Vance delivered a blunt message to the Israeli government, urging it to support President Trump’s agreement with Iran. “I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world,” he said of the Jewish nation. Israel, he continued, “needs to wake up and smell the reality of the situation that country is in.” This is rhetoric that isolates Israel and shirks America’s responsibility to stand with the only country in the region that shares our values—at least the values true patriots still stand by.
The Islamabad IOU has not just concerned Israel. The Gulf states are troubled, as well. Iran is their enemy, too. Why would the Trump administration make Israel’s operations in Lebanon part of the Iran MOU? Israel isn’t a party to the agreement. They’re a sovereign nation-state. Compelling Israel to quit Lebanon strengthens Hezbollah.
Then there’s that damned ceasefire in Gaza. Trump’s pressure on Israel allows Hamas time to regroup. Surely the administration knows this. They know this, too: both Hezbollah and Hamas are proxies for Iran’s war forever against Israel. Iran’s aggression imperils the entire region. Are Israel and the Gulf States not our allies?
And what about Russia? I have long been a critic of those who claim that Trump colludes with Putin to weaken the rules-based international order. Moreover, I am sympathetic to Russia’s motive for the Ukrainian action (see History and Sides-Taking in the Russo-Ukrainian War; Pushing Through the Panic and Propaganda in a World at War). But Russia is not a friend, and the MoU benefits Russia in several ways.
The Islamabad MoU benefits Russia mainly through military cooperation and sanctions evasion. Iran supplies Russia with drones, the new face of modern warfare. Defensive cooperation fuels the Ukraine war. Both countries work to bypass Western sanctions by developing alternative trade and financial channels.
To be sure, the relationship between Iran and Russia is pragmatic rather than a formal alliance (the world beyond the West doesn’t work in exactly the same way). Nonetheless, strategically, Iran gives Russia greater leverage in the Middle East. By not merely allowing the Islamic Regime of Iran to escape annihilation but to enjoy hundreds of billions of dollars in development funds, and tying the agreement to weakening Israeli efforts to secure safety for its people, Trump has greatly strengthened Russia’s hand in the region.
Given NATO support for Ukraine, European leaders’ celebration of the MoU might seem a bit of a mystery. However, it should be noted that China also benefits from a strengthened Iran, and that’s good for the globalization project. More than a reliable energy source for China, ties with Iran expand China’s influence in the Middle East, support initiatives like the Belt and Road, and give it greater geopolitical leverage in the region. Here, again, the partnership is pragmatic rather than a formal military alliance.
I had considered that, behind the preemptive attack on Iran’s military apparatus, and possibly regime change in that country, Trump was disrupting the de facto China-Russia alliance (see Beyond Regime Change: Iran, the Rise of China, and the Trump Doctrine). The two countries cooperate closely in several areas, albeit without the binding mutual-defense commitments that define a formal alliance. The MoU strengthens that relationship. To what end?
Europeans applauded the MoU at the G7. Perhaps Europe pursues two objectives at once: containing Russia by bogging that nation down in a forever war with Ukraine (Ukraine be damned), while strengthening China by preserving its path to the Middle East. Could this be, at least in part, because it delegitimizes the Trump populist-nationalist vision of a restored Europe? (See Donald Trump’s Grand Vision: Make Western Civilization Great Again.) Has the President abandoned the doctrine? Was he ever dedicated to it?
The President is a sensitive man. Too sensitive. He likes the crowd. The loud rejection of Trump over the Iran war by the Blue Hats cannot have escaped his attention. Their dramatic exit from the movement’s mainstream hinges on their characterization of Trump as having abandoned America First. It must sting the President that the isolationists accuse him of breaking bread with the neoconservatives. The Blue Hats must be overjoyed at neocon consternation over the MoU.
In leaving MAGA, Russiophilia became prominent in the far right’s rhetoric, as I document in The Dark Heart of Antisemitism: Separating the Haters from the Critics. and The Woke Reich and the Enemy Within (although, while it struck me at the time as rhetorically clever, I am not sure “woke” is the best word to describe this tendency). But more than Russiophilia, Islamophilia has also emerged on the far right. This development is driven by antisemitism.
This development cannot please Europeans. They have a problem on their hands: nationalism. Nationalism is the biggest obstacle to globalism and its stepping stone: regionalization. Populism threatens the transnationalist project because it is a manifestation of patriotism. It appears, however, that Europeans elites are realizing that, while they cannot stop the rise of populism across the EU by branding the right as “fascist” and “racist,” they may be able to co-opt it, at least rhetorically, by throwing bones to ziophobes.
The EU has, moreover, moved to tighten immigration controls. On March 26, 2026, the European Parliament voted on a major part of the EU’s migration reform known as the Return Regulation, which is part of the broader Migration and Asylum Pact. The vote speeds up deportations of people without a legal right to stay in the EU, allows longer detention periods in some cases, creates or permits so-called “return hubs” or detention/processing centers outside the EU, and expands cooperation with non-EU countries for returns and removals.
These are fallback positions. The positions of the European elite are not really a mystery. Such developments require elites to finesse the situation. If anti-Israel sentiment animates the opposition, then give the ziophobes a false sense of affinity while decrying antisemitism. “We hear you, comrades.”
For elites, antisemitism is strategic. For antisemites, it is heartfelt. Co-optation won’t work. Ziophobia is core to far-right ideology. A visible elite is not nearly as attractive as a cabalistic one. Epstein’s Island was a Jewish plot. 9-11 was a Jewish plot. AIPAC commands our elections. And so on. It’s a mindset. And a reflex. Antisemitism lies at the core of MAGA exit.
For the balance of this essay, I want to focus on developments on the domestic side, since these function to strengthen the transnationalist project. It seems a paradox. But the problem here is not intent, but effect. The Blue Hats are not eager agents of globalization. Antisemitism functions as a means to this end, nonetheless.
As much as I would like to believe that the Blue Hats are a fringe phenomenon, they are a problem that nationalists cannot ignore. These are not our allies. They are useful idiots working at cross-purposes with the project to restore nationalism. The rise of Russiophilia and Islamophilia on the American right, if it sways Trump, weakens his doctrine and strengthens the globalization project.
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On June 2, Glenn Beck published “The Russian influence operations targeting Candace Owens and you,” an analysis penned by Ryan Mauro, a counter-extremist and national security expert. Beck followed this the next day with his own commentary on the matter.
I do not follow Beck’s content, but these pieces caught my attention because, the day before Mauro’s analysis appeared, I published an essay about the problem Mauro identifies, introducing readers to the Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin and his Fourth Political Theory (see The Left-Far Right Convergence and Notes on the Fourth Political Theory). Mauro’s article deepens our understanding of the movement Dugin represents. I am not the only one who has seen the peril of the Fourth Political Theory. Readers need to see it, too.
Read Mauro’s analysis, by all means. But I’ll summarize it here. Mauro argues that Russia is executing what may be one of the most effective foreign malign influence operations in modern history, blending rebranded Tsarist Orthodox Christianity, Russian nationalism, and conspiracy narratives to undermine the West, particularly the United States and Christianity itself. The problem was never Trump’s subservience to Putin. Yet, today, he is backing into Russian machinations to destabilize the West.
The effort is rooted in Soviet-era strategies to revive communism by fusing it with Orthodox theology and nationalism. I leave that history to Mauro and others. What is important for the moment is understanding that the nexus of the Russian Orthodox Church-Moscow Patriarchate, state-backed outlets like the Strategic Culture Foundation, and ideologues such as Alexander Dugin. Those who once identified themselves as Trump’s strongest allies domestically are a principal target of the nexus.
The operation promotes a messianic vision of Russia as a “holy” defender of traditional values, framing the West as satanic and positioning Moscow’s influence as a spiritual imperative. This has attracted the far right in America, especially those subscribing to right-wing sides of Catholicism and Eastern Orthodoxy. We hear it not only in ziophobia but in anti-Protestant rhetoric (see What Jesus Told the Pharisees and the Jewish Roots of Christianity).
The ideology Mauro is describing mirrors Islamism in key ways: a drive for civilizational unification (the “Russian World” is akin to the Ummah), justification of “holy war,” promises of spiritual redemption for fighters, blasphemy protections, and strategic alliances with Islamist actors against shared Western enemies. It is not merely a mirror image but a de facto alliance. These tendencies have converged to produce a geopolitical force. Increasingly, it is more cross-fertilization than convergence.
According to Mauro, Dugin, and others, work to reconcile Christian and Islamic eschatologies to sustain this partnership through an envisioned apocalyptic battle. The practical strategy, drawn from the Russian philosopher’s writings, focuses on exploiting Western divisions—isolationism, moral decay, racial and social conflicts, and separatism—to weaken the US from within, laundering narratives through non-Russian voices and influencers. Protestantism is the root of the Enlightenment and liberalism; the Reformation is condemned. This is where Candice Owens, Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentez, and others come in.

For Maduro and Beck, Candace Owens’ undisclosed activities and appearance at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum serve as a concrete example of how this influence reaches American audiences. Her engagements align with networks tied to Russian intelligence, propaganda figures, and the Russian Orthodox ecosystem, amid a pattern of amplification by state media like RT and earlier cultivation by Russia-linked operatives.
Mauro frames this not as an isolated incident but as evidence of a broader cognitive warfare campaign that uses anti-Western rhetoric, conspiracy themes, and the rhetoric of “family values” to draw conservatives and Christians toward a false choice: prioritizing a declining and immoral West or embracing an authoritarian, Moscow-centered “rescue” of faith and tradition. The desire for Christian theism aligns with the Islamic project of a global order founded on Sharia.
To be sure, the West is in decline. Its moral fabric is tattered and torn. But Protestantism, the Enlightenment, and liberalism are not the culprits. What lies behind the decline are globalization and progressivism. These are the forces denationalizing the West. The Blue Hats are working for these forces.
I’m not suggesting that Russiophilia is in the service of globalization by delegitimizing the Trump presidency. The Blue Hats are committed ideologues. They seek to undermine Trump for their own perverse reasons. Nonetheless, the tendency effectively weakens MAGA and derails the very project those who have abandoned Trump ostensibly support: strengthening the nation-state against the transnational project.
The Blue Hats may simply be stupid (that they still think after everything that has transpired that Jews run the world indeed suggests stupidity). It is, moreover, obvious that they are social influencers cultivating an audience. However, stupidity and grifting are not mutually exclusive. That the influencers are affecting things is obvious. They are not a fringe element. And it appears they’re getting to Trump.
Action confirms sentiment. If the Blue Hats weren’t antisemites, they would have thrown their support behind a preemptive war in Iran and used their influence to encourage their followers to see higher gas prices as a necessary burden in achieving a safer future for the West and freedom for Persians, a noble people who deserve the civilization of their ancestors.
The Blue Hats would have had to suffer the neoconservatives, but standing shoulder to shoulder with the perpetrators of the Second Gulf War entails no permanent alliance. One can still oppose PNAC’s invasion of Iraq while supporting preemptive war—and even regime change—in Iran. Iraq and Iran are not analogues. The Ba’athist regime in Iraq posed no existential threat to Israel and the West. Iran is an entirely different story, especially since the Islamic Republic comes with strategic alliances with Russia and China.
But the blue hats are disordered by Jew-hatred. It is that ancient hatred that aligns them with Islam and ultimately the transnationalist project. They will never grasp the reality that they betray their own cause of national restoration. They cannot because, deep down, they oppose the Protestant foundations of the American Republic. They derive their ethics not from Nature’s God, but rather from a desire for the divine command of a patriarchal God, a deity manifest in the hierarchical structuring of life that leaves little room for individual liberty.
Ironically, the churches they attend mimic the highly ritualized and priest-dictated religious experience that marks the old monarchal Judaism, an atavistic system Jews long ago transcended. They mean to come not only for Jews, but for Protestants, as well, and that entails coming after the very constitutional order upon which the American Republic rests.
The Blue Hats are fascists. They didn’t have to be. But it is what they have become. To the extent that this crowd holds any sway over Trump, they taint his presidency. To the extent that Trump allows them to shape his policies, he undermines himself—and the nation.
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