Index crimes are those crimes the FBI deems to be the most serous. There are two types: property crimes, which includes arson, burglary, motor vehicle theft, and theft-larceny; and violent crimes, includes aggravated assault, homicide, rape, and robbery. The New York Times wants you know as we approach the 2024 election that Index crime rates are falling—and not by a little: “Murder likely fell at record speed last year.” Here’s the chart they supply:
I want the reader to note that not only are the 2021, ‘22 murder rates higher than at any point in the new millennium, but also the newspaper’s own estimate of the ‘23 rate is higher, as well. The New York Times admits that its 2023 numbers are estimates based on 99 cities; that number could be higher or lower. I suspect it’s higher. I will put the matter of the 2023 estimate to the side and work with the numbers I have available, which is the FBI’s Crime Data Explorer (CDE) through 2022.
Keep in mind that the FBI recently shifted from the Uniform Crime Report (UCR) model to the CDE, the dash-boarding system based on the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS). For most of Biden’s presidency, the FBI was derelict in reporting crime statistics, which was frustrating for those of us who teach criminal justice at colleges and universities and advise law enforcement agencies on national trends. My suspicion is that the FBI was (and still is) foot dragging because of the explosion of crime under the Biden Administration.
It should be clarified that only some Index crime rates have been increasing over the last few years, namely aggravated assault, homicide, motor vehicle theft, and rape (the later likely the result of a more inclusive definition). Other Index crimes continue their historic declines, trends that begin in the second half of 1990s with the historic expansion of the criminal justice apparatus. Given the depolicing trend after 2014, I suspect significant underreporting for many of these crime types (aggravated assault, homicide, and motor vehicle theft are more likely to get through the filter).
Based on other sources of information, I have good reason to believe the recent FBI statistics underreport the incidence and prevalence of serious criminal offending. Based on the Justice Department’s National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which depends on scientific survey methods rather than agency reporting, both total violent and property victimization rates were substantially higher in 2022 than in 2021. The NCVS finds that there is significant underreporting of crime. The discrepancies indicate that some of that underreporting is from the agencies themselves. Moreover, where as the NCVS covers the entire nation, approximately 75 percent of agencies report their numbers to the FBI.
Based on FBI numbers, it does not appear that crime is drastically declining. I begin with the ten-year trend for violent crime overall as indicated by the FBI’s CDE. Again, as 2023 just ended, these data stop at 2022, which is the last substantially completed year statistically-speaking.
The New York Times frames the recent rise in crime around the death of George Floyd. However, as longer trends indicate, the rise in violence crime begins after 2014, the year of Michael Brown’s death at the hands of a Ferguson, Missouri police officer, an event spawning the “hands up” myth that propelled the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement to the national forefront. BLM organized violent resistance against government authorities resulting in an uprising promoted by the legacy and social media and the Democratic Party. This has been referred to as the “Ferguson Effect.” The origins of the rise in crime is obscured not only because the Michael Brown narrative was debunked but because the way the corporate state prepared the conditions for the uprising was comprehensive and intentional. Using the George Floyd case as the starting point gives the color revolution a more organic feel.
We can see the trend in the rates of aggravated assault, homicide, and motor vehicle theft (MVT) during the same decadal frame. In fact, MVT continues to climb and is now higher than any point after 2009.
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Update (January 16, 2024): The Green Bay Police Department says crime is down from last year and is lower now that at any time before the pandemic. They cite three crime types: personal, property, and crimes against society (which covers non-Index crimes such as prostitution, public drug, drug possession, etc.). All of them are down, PD claims. This isn’t true in my neighborhood, which has seen a rash of burglaries. But I am more concerned about the rate of violent crime (aggravated assault, homicide, rape, and robbery).
This is the trend line for FBI CDE violent crime rate for Green Bay. The blue line is reported crime (the clearance rates track it pretty much). Note that crime increases sharply after 2010. This is when the corporate media rolled out the propaganda terms “systemic racism” and “white privilege.” The crime rate has remains high throughout the period that follows, jumping up during Ferguson and peaking during the pandemic. As you can see, the rate for 2022 was higher than the rate in 2010 and is as high as at any time since 2015. I don’t have access to 2023 numbers, so maybe there is a sharp drop. That’s the claim, anyway. But I doubt it for reasons expressed above. Also, for data for the Ashwaubenon Police Department, Brown County Sheriff, De Pere Police Department, violent crime was up 2022 over 2021. I’ll keep you posted.
freedom and reason 