Happy Independence Day, first of all. Next year will be 250 years since we declared our independence from a monarchy.
The United States is more than $34 trillion in debt. Unless we achieve strong economic growth, we face serious fiscal peril. A 2% annual GDP growth rate isn’t sufficient—that’s barely keeping pace with inflation, population growth, and entitlement obligations. To stabilize and begin reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio, we need sustained real growth in the range of 3 to 3.5 percent. And we need it now. A sovereign debt crisis is looming. If we hit that wall, the consequences could be catastrophic: structural adjustments imposed by market forces or international institutions, which could mean deep cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and other entitlements that millions of Americans—who built this country—rely on.
When Trump was elected in 2016, I said there would be pain. But if we fail to deal with these realities today, the pain tomorrow will be far worse. And tomorrow is rapidly becoming today. There is no time left to wait.
There’s no viable alternative to the economic path that Trump and Bessent have outlined. The progressive alternative—massive new government spending to stimulate growth—only leads to deeper debt. More debt pushes up interest rates, which slows investment and growth. Higher rates also increase the cost of servicing that debt, which now consumes over $1 trillion annually—more than we spend on defense. At the same time, expanded government means more regulation, less freedom, and a ballooning administrative state that inserts itself into every aspect of our private lives. Moreover, government spending often requires monetary expansion—raising the money supply—which fuels inflation. The progressive path is a trap: unsustainable debt, persistent inflation, and creeping authoritarianism cloaked in bureaucracy.
Some argue we should simply tax the rich. But this is a mirage. Hiking top marginal rates reduces private investment, which is the engine of economic growth. History and empirical evidence show that over-taxing high earners leads to capital flight and stagnation. Without growth, tax revenues shrink, deficits widen, and the debt burden worsens. It’s a vicious cycle. (The post-WWII era, often cited to justify high taxes, was unique: the US was the only intact industrial power, the dollar was backed by gold, and rebuilding the world created unprecedented demand.)
Instead, we need supply-side growth. That means making the Trump tax cuts permanent, creating certainty for investors, and freeing up capital for productive investment. Growth brings increased tax revenues without raising rates. Only through expansion can we pay down the debt, reduce interest rates, and unlock further investment—not just in capital markets, but in homes, cars, and durable goods that drive real economic vitality.
Immigration policy is key to this effort. By securing the border and enforcing existing laws, we can reduce the labor surplus that depresses wages. As capital flows into domestic manufacturing and infrastructure, labor demand rises. A tighter labor market means higher wages, especially for blue-collar Americans. Basic supply and demand.
Some critics say: “But capital is mobile—won’t investors just go offshore?” That’s where tariffs come in. Trump’s tariff policy discourages offshoring by making foreign production more expensive. If you invest in America, you avoid tariffs. In addition, tariffs serve as an external source of revenue—billions of dollars have flowed into the US Treasury from these measures, helping offset fiscal pressures. And critically, businesses are returning to the US—reshoring jobs and rebuilding capacity.
Trump and Bessent’s plan is not business as usual. It’s a bold departure from the stale orthodoxy of slow growth and elite consensus. The target is 3–3.5% real GDP growth. Achieving it means rebalancing the global economy to favor the United States. Call it what it is: economic nationalism. Supply-side economics plus strategic protectionism. An “America First” model fit for the twenty-first century. It’s time to unleash the animal spirits of innovation, investment, and labor.
What did Reagan say? “Let us begin an era of national renewal.” He awakened the sleeping industrial giant. Now it’s time to do it again—just in time to counter the next challenge: artificial intelligence.
AI is advancing rapidly. It’s coming for white-collar jobs—accounting, law, media, even academia. Bureaucrats aren’t safe either. But this opens the door for blue-collar America to rise again. We need to build a resilient, productive nation—one that digs and manufactures. That means refocusing on physical labor and industrial infrastructure, and on the dignity of work.
When did we last grow like Trump and Bessent propose? The Reagan years. Supply-side economics pulled us out of stagflation, brought down interest rates, tamed inflation, and sparked one of the longest expansions in US history. Despite a crash in 1987 and a mild recession under Bush Sr., the foundation was so strong that even Clinton—with a Republican Congress—benefited, claiming a budget surplus by the end of his term.
But Clinton’s deregulation, followed by Bush Jr.’s globalist wars and unchecked spending, laid the groundwork for the 2008 financial crisis—the worst since the Great Depression. Obama responded not by reforming Wall Street, but by handing trillions to corporate donors and expanding federal power. Between Bush Jr. and Biden, only Trump’s first term stood out—until it was disrupted by COVID-19 and the political chaos that followed.
Now Trump is back, and more prepared than ever. Those four years outside Washington were providential. He returns with clarity, purpose, and a tested economic blueprint. I understand why the Freedom Caucus wants more from current legislation. But no bill is perfect—and this one needs to pass. Delay means another continuing resolution this fall—and Biden’s budget all over again: more spending, more debt, more stagnation.
We don’t have time for that. We need growth—now. We need the Big Ugly Bill.
freedom and reason 